21–22 NBA Previews: The New Orleans Pelicans (#22)
One of the tools we have for making sense of the world around us is pattern discernment. Identifying patterns allows us to lean, in our decision-making, towards possible likelihoods. Imagine you are walking on a trail in the woods, following clearly visible trail markers. Imagine you turn a corner and see no marker ahead. What do you do? Do you just start screaming and sprint through the trees until you get KO’d by a tree branch? No, you discern the trail, even without a marker, because you know what a trail is. You know its characteristics. Its tell-tale signs.
Nevertheless, for every gain in this life, there is a corresponding loss. Our reliance on patterns often leaves us helpless in the face of the new. It takes us time to incorporate new possibilities into our processing systems. I bring this up because: Zion Williamson.
I am an NBA Historian™, so when I watch young players, I find myself wanting to compare them to the players who have come before. I do this knowing full well that the truly great players will brook no true comparison. It is my sense that Zion’s closest comparison is Charles Barkley, which is hilarious, because Barkley was totally unique himself. Still, the comparison does sort of hum a bit, doesn’t it? Each simultaneously undersized (in height) and overwhelming (in strength); each with a kind of ferocious athleticism that is even more astounding in relation to body-type; each a bulldozer with a shaky outside shot; each incredibly flawed on defense and incredibly useful on offense.
Still, Zion is different. He’s got a wiggle to him—an elusiveness with the ball—that Barkley never had. He’s a little more capable of running an offense from the perimeter, a little more creative as a passer. That’s the good stuff, but there’s bad stuff too, and it all starts here: Barkley may not have been a good defensive player, but he was an all-time great rebounder. He could finish a possession. Zion’s not there. He could be, but he isn’t.
With Zion, there are all these interesting questions. Will he ever give a shit about defense? Can he be a full-time point guard? Alternatively, can he hold up as a center? Can he stay healthy? The fact that we are just now learning that he—surprise!—had foot surgery this offseason and might not be back for the start of the regular season is a real red flag.
On top of the Zion questions, there are loads of roster-based questions looming over this situation. What kinds of players work best alongside Zion? Is Brandon Ingram a good partner for him? Will David Griffin ever make a smart roster decision again? Does Zion even want to be in New Orleans? To that last question, Zion’s media day performance yesterday left me without any clear answers.
In terms of the Pelicans’ ability to win regular season games in the short term, the question is the defense. This roster is sort of hilariously ill-equipped to guard opposing NBA teams. Each player on the team skews badly to one side of the ball or the other, and very few are skewing towards defense. They inexplicably decided to let Lonzo Ball leave, and in his place they brought in Devonte’ Graham, an absolutely atrocious defensive player with a limited—though admittedly useful—offensive game. At center, they exchanged Steven Adams, who made no sense on this roster, for Jonas Valanciunas, who also makes no sense on this roster.
There are tons of promising young players here beyond Zion. Jaxson Hayes, Kira Lewis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Trey Murphy have all been drafted in the past couple of seasons, and each has some promise, actually, as a two-way player. Promise, though, is in the future. It remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the buzz lingers that Zion is unhappy, and when you take a long look at the shitshow that’s been going on around him the past couple of seasons, it’s kind of hard to blame him.
Most projections have the Pelicans as a fringe playoff-team, squarely in the mix for the play-in game, but my guess is that they’re much worse than that. If Zion misses any real amount of time, they’re almost certainly worse than that. I think the best version of the current roster is another year or two away, when the young guys listed above can take the place of the flawed veterans Griffin has rushed to put around Zion. It’s too bad, because Zion is incendiary. When he plays, he’s going to be a blast to watch regardless, and there will be some incredible moments, but this team isn’t ready to win yet. Unless I’m reading the pattern wrong.